2026 Holiday Shopping Outlook: What Online Retailers Need to Know Before Q4

Key Takeaways

• Stable topline spending: Overall holiday spending intent is holding steady, with 46% of shoppers planning to spend about the same as last year, 25% planning to spend more, and 16% planning to spend less.
• Younger shoppers drive growth: Consumers aged 18 to 34 are leading spending growth, with 38% expecting to spend more, more than triple the rate among older shoppers.
• Inflation vs. confidence: Increased spending is largely cost-driven rather than volume-driven, with 31% of higher spenders citing higher prices as their primary reason. Meanwhile, budget squeezes from everyday expenses are driving overall cutbacks.
• Fundamentals win the sale: Discounts and promotions (40%) top the list of decision factors, closely followed by free or low-cost shipping (36%), everyday low prices (31%), and reliable delivery (27%). Loyalty programs rank near the bottom at 11%.
• No single shopping peak: Holiday shopping is mainly distributed across Q4, with Thanksgiving weekend to Cyber Monday accounting for 19% of primary shopping intent, barely beating pre-November shopping (18%) and early December (17%).
• Digital & hybrid dominance: Nearly half (49%) of consumers plan to shop mostly online, while 26% intend to split their purchases equally between online and physical stores.

If you’re an online retailer, you already know the holiday season isn’t just “the biggest quarter” anymore. For many brands, the quarter determines whether the year as a whole is a good one. 

So, what is the holiday shopper actually going to do this year? 

Bizrate Insights set out to answer that with a new Holiday Shopping Outlook Survey of over 1,000 U.S. consumers, fielded in mid-July. The results paint a picture that’s more nuanced than “consumers are cautious” or “consumers are confident.” It’s both, depending on who you ask, and that’s exactly the kind of detail that should be shaping your holiday marketing calendar, your shipping promise, and your promotional cadence right now.

Here’s what the data says, and what it means for your online store.

Overall spending intent is steady, but it’s not evenly distributed

Overall, holiday spending looks stable. Across all respondents, 25% said they plan to spend somewhat or much more this year compared to last, while 16% expect to spend somewhat or much less. Nearly half (46%) expect to spend about the same, and 14% say they simply don’t know yet.

Younger shoppers are the growth engine this year

Drill down by age, and the picture gets a lot clearer. Shoppers aged 18–34 are the most bullish group by far, with 38% saying they’ll spend more this year, significantly higher than every other age bracket. 

Spending intent then declines steadily with age: 29% among 35–49-year-olds, dropping to 16% among 50–64-year-olds, and 12% among those 65 and older.

This isn’t a small gap. Younger shoppers are more than three times as likely as those aged 65+ to say they’re increasing their holiday spending. 

If your customers skew Gen Z or younger Millennial, that’s a genuine tailwind heading into Q4. Still, it also means your creative, channel mix, and promotional tone should be calibrated for a shopper who is optimistic, digitally native, and comfortable buying on impulse when the offer is right.

Why shoppers are spending more, and why others are spending less

Understanding why shoppers land where they do is arguably more useful than the topline number, because it tells you which messages will actually land.

Among shoppers planning to spend more, the leading reasons were:

• Inflation, not enthusiasm, is the top driver. 31% said they expect to spend more simply because prices are higher, not because they’re buying more.
• 26% have more people to buy for this year.
• 23% plan to buy more or larger gifts.
• 20% say their personal finances have improved.
• 18% plan to buy higher-quality or more expensive items.

That first stat matters a lot for how you interpret “increased spending” internally. A shopper who’s spending more because of increasing prices isn’t necessarily buying more product; they may be buying the same list at a higher price point, which means unit volume could stay flat even as revenue ticks up. Don’t let stronger year-over-year dollar sales obscure the fact that underlying demand is largely flat.

On the other hand, among shoppers planning to cut back, the reasons were:

• 31% say everyday expenses are leaving less room for holiday spending.
• 26% plan to buy fewer gifts outright.
• 19% report major unplanned expenses this year.
• 16% are trading down to lower-cost gifts.

This reflects a budget squeeze rather than a collapse in consumer confidence. Shoppers are not abandoning holiday traditions; they are actively triaging their spending. Retailers can capture these budget-conscious shoppers by focusing on bundles, gift sets, and value-focused messaging that helps stretch every dollar. 

The factors that actually win the sale

Ask shoppers what will matter most in deciding where to shop this year, and the answer is refreshingly concrete.

Discounts and promotions top the list at 40%. Still, shipping and pricing fundamentals aren’t far behind: free or low-cost shipping (36%), lowest everyday prices (31%), confidence that orders will arrive correctly and on time (27%), and fast delivery (26%). Loyalty programs and flexible return policies, by comparison, rank much lower: 11% and 7% respectively.

The takeaway for retailers: this isn’t a loyalty-program holiday season, it’s a fundamentals holiday season. Shoppers are telling you, in plain terms, that price and delivery reliability will decide where the sale happens. 

If your shipping cost calculator, delivery estimate accuracy, or checkout transparency has any friction, Q4 is not the quarter to leave it unresolved. A strong loyalty program is nice to have; a shipping promise you can actually keep is table stakes.

Shopping timing: There’s no single peak anymore

One of the more strategically useful findings is just how spread out holiday shopping intentions are.

Thanksgiving weekend through Cyber Monday still edges out as the single most popular window at 19%. Still, it’s barely ahead of “before November” (18%) and “early December” (17%), with “early November, before Thanksgiving” close behind at 17%. Only 5% say they’ll wait until mid-to-late December, and 8% spread their shopping across the whole year.

In other words, the traditional Black Friday/Cyber Monday spike is still real, but it’s no longer where most of the opportunity lies. 

Nearly as many shoppers plan to shop before Thanksgiving as during it. Retailers who hold their best offers exclusively for the “Cyber Five” window are leaving a comparable-sized audience of early shoppers on the table. 

Online still dominates, but the hybrid shopper is real

Almost half of all shoppers (49%) say they’ll do most of their holiday shopping online, and just 6% plan to shop mostly in physical stores. 

But the more interesting number sits in between: 26% of shoppers plan to shop about equally online and in-store, and another 4% will research in one channel and buy in the other. That’s roughly a third of shoppers moving fluidly between channels. 

What this means for your Q4 playbook

Pulling it together, a few strategic priorities stand out for online retailers heading into the season:

1. Lead with discounts, but don’t stop there. Discounts and promos are the single biggest factor in where shoppers choose to buy. Still, they’re only slightly ahead of shipping and pricing fundamentals like free or low-cost shipping, lowest everyday prices, and delivery reliability.
2. Don’t wait for Black Friday to launch your best offers. With over a third of shoppers planning to shop before Thanksgiving even begins, an early-access campaign can capture demand that a Cyber Week-only strategy would miss entirely.
3. Segment your messaging by generation. Younger shoppers are your growth segment and respond to urgency and bigger, better gifts; older shoppers are more budget-conscious and will respond better to value and reassurance.
4. Use bundling and value framing for budget-squeezed shoppers. Shoppers spending less aren’t checking out; they’re just being careful about where their money goes. Help them stretch what they’ve got instead of slashing prices across the board.
5. Smooth out the cross-channel experience. A third of shoppers are moving between online and offline touchpoints, and any inconsistency there could be a lost sale.

No single big idea wins the holidays. It comes down to nailing a few basics before your competitors do. 

And this year, shoppers have pretty much spelled out what those basics are: fair pricing, reliable shipping, and being ready whenever they decide to shop, not just during Black Friday week.

Methodology 

This study was conducted by Bizrate Insights via an online survey of 1,057 U.S. adults who had just completed a purchase from a retailer in the Bizrate Insights network. Fieldwork was conducted in July 2026. Results were analyzed by age, gender, household income, and generation, and the subgroup differences highlighted in this article are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level (two-proportion z-test, p<0.05).